Quote Originally Posted by erlrich View Post
... The potential for IT to become what SM has become would be very real IMO, and that could be a very bad thing for the class.
You mean, "popular" and "competitive?" Something else? This issue came out as one of the common arguments against National status - that "IT would become like Spec Miata" - but it was less easy for those opponents to explain HOW that would happen.

...The addition of ST does add the potential for new cars to come into Club Racing.
No doubt that that STU will see some cars (or car-engine mash-ups) that wouldn't otherwise have a place to race in SCCA. Is that, in and of itself, a good thing? Montana Region could create "Spec Bobcat" (swiped from someone else - Tom, maybe?) and create a huge opportunity for an entirely new field of vehicles...



...but does "new" automatically translate into "successful?" (Note that this is a stock version, above. You can tell by the lack of SFI stickers on the side screens.) Even if four guys in Missoula REALLY want to race them and have full backing from the National Marketing Manager - one of the guy's father - who's willing to pay big contingency $$ for an ARRC win...?

New cars have to come with "new drivers," replacing those who leave, so we at least maintain current participation levels program-wide. And remember here that we don't primarily lose racing members because they get old and crotchety. We lose them largely because they get financially overextended, disaffected, or ultimatum'd by their spouses.

...IT going National would benefit National Club Racing, but that would be offset by the loss to the Regional programs. ...
So, a thought experiment to test that theory: Is safe to assume that H Production would be a more successful class, program-wide, were it to LOSE its National status and become a Regional-only class? Or is there something else going on behind this assertion?

Does it absolutely follow that it would be "bad for Regional racing" if, for example, current Regional IT entrants had the option so decided they wanted to do Nationals? The simple loss of those entries would be the net (negative) effect on Regional IT racing...? (I think Jeff expressed this concern.) How about the possibility that more people with National aspirations would use Regional IT races to meet their licensing requirements? Or for car and driver development? Or that prices for used IT cars might increase due to a bigger market? Or that the supply of top-spec used IT cars might expand as National drivers quit?

And is it a safe first assumption that National racing competes with Regional racing? Noodle over the implications of THAT one for a minute, if your answer is "yes."

The whole point I'm trying to make here is NOT that you are wrong. It's that we need to think through the mechanisms we understand to be at work - the theories-of-action - that "cause" the results with expect from a policy decision, and anticipate how all possible outcomes might fit together to define how "successful" it ultimately is.

I could reasonably assume that an improvement to my house will make it easier to sell - curb appeal! - but it might also increase my property tax. Or make it HARDER to sell if it becomes the $400K property on a block of $100K properties. Or make it IMPOSSIBLE to sell, when I discover that nobody seems to like the stone-and-iron, sadomasochistic dungeon themed great room that I thought was the BEST THING EVER...

K